The state of affairs in WSB....
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World Superbike Enters Its Most Important Period Ever
The SBK media office was both quick and frequent with their references
to Race Two last weekend at Silverstone as the series' 400th-ever
contest. Of course, it was a forgivable bit of grandstanding for the
much-maligned series looking to remind the world of its upstart
beginnings and subsequent meteoric rise to prominence.
And to be fair, young Chris Vermeulen's victorious duel aboard the Ten
Kate CBR1000RR over Renegade Ducati's Noriyuki Haga in race number 400
did send minds back to some memorable moments in World Superbike
history:
The first race ever, also held in the UK—a race won by current Ducati
Fila manager Davide Tardozzi aboard a Bimota (although Marco
Lucchinelli was named the weekend's winner in an aggregate-result
format utilized by the championship in its debut weekend only).
The last time a more or less private four-cylinder had won—Fabrizio
Pirovano was victorious in Estoril aboard a BYRD YZF750 during the
last weekend of the 1993 season (although the Belgarda team may have
been considered a "factory" effort by some in those days of the
championship, prior to the entrance of Castrol Honda, Harris Suzuki,
or the full-works Yamaha squad run out of the Belgarda home base).
The last time an inline-four took the checkered flag
first—Pierfrancesco Chili guided his Alstare Suzuki GSX-R750 to
victory for the last time at Donington Park in 2001, the one and only
four-cylinder triumph that season.
And the last time anyone had toppled mighty Ducati in a race—The
astounding 2002 season finale at Imola saw Castrol Honda's Colin
Edwards complete his unthinkable championship comeback over Ducati
Infostrada's Troy Bayliss.
But much more important to FGSport than the nostalgic appeal of last
weekend's results were its wide-reaching implications for the
future—tangible evidence that the series' bold formula-shift prior to
the season may not have been complete madness after all and real
reason for optimism after many critics had the championship all but
embalmed.
Ten Kate and their gifted 21-year-old World Supersport Champion, Chris
Vermeulen, were always considered the guinea pigs to put the
legitimacy of this new era of World Superbike racing to the test in
2004. Although new to Superbikes, the Dutch outfit's respected tuning
prowess and the Aussie's prodigious skills were expected to
demonstrate whether or not the new (restrictor-less) across-the-board
1000cc rules and Pirelli spec tires would allow four-cylinders to
finally be competitive again in a cost-effective, privateer-friendly
manner.
The MSMA revolt accelerated the process, leaving the Ten Kate
Superbike project an "untouchable" in the HRC caste system, despite
TKR's designation as an officially recognized factory Honda World
Supersport team. While many have theorized that Vermeulen's CBR1000RR
has been aided by backdoor HRC support this season, everyone involved
has repeatedly denied the claim. Visually, it's obvious that the
yellow-and-black World Superbike runner lacks some of the trickest
parts sported by the factory CBR1000RRWs that are currently winning
races in AMA and BSB competition.
An impressive season-long performance, punctuated by the first 1000cc
four-cylinder victory in series history, assuredly hit home on many
fronts. While the derisive "Ducati Cup" moniker may not fall from use
following one 38-minute sprint race, the end of the Italians' absolute
dominance is fast approaching.
Even this season, a learning year for both Ten Kate and Vermeulen, the
pairing still ranks as something of a dark horse to claim the throne;
the Aussie is currently 30-odd points behind the fallible factory
Ducati pilots. Had the 20 points earned for a runner-up finish at
Monza not been discarded due to a non-functioning cut-out switch,
Ducati Corse would really have something to fear in the rapidly
improving 196mph bike and its rider.
Ten Kate hasn't been the only team to signal the impending end of the
"Ducati Cup" days. The Foggy Petronas team has picked up a pair of
podiums and a pole position in their second year of competition. With
further engine development to their 900cc triple, they might have a
shot at becoming a legitimate contender (a quick note about the
assumption that Petronas needs to homologate a 1000cc version of their
FP1 before they have a chance to be fully competitive: remember, a
900cc triple is subject to the same more-open rules that currently
make 1000cc twins the configuration of choice. A 1000cc triple, on the
other hand, has to follow the same tighter tuning restrictions as a
1000cc four).
The less-heralded MIR Suzuki and Bertocchi Kawasaki teams have had
their moments, as well.
And, while the Pirelli spec tires rules have been roundly criticized,
particularly after not creating ultra-tight racing right from the
start, their benefits have started to become publicly recognized by
the former have-nots. They've also become somewhat more evident on
track as the contenders who lacked sufficient preseason test time to
get acclimated with their machines and rubber (basically anyone not
named Regis Laconi or James Toseland) have finally dialed in their
race packages.
Certainly, the Haga/Vermeulen dogfights at Silverstone were a positive
sign as the customer Ducati 999RS04 of Haga's and officially
unofficial CBR1000RR of Vermeulen's were perfectly matched throughout
both races. This despite the two running different compounds in the
rear both times out, along with making opposing choices for the front
in the first race. To add further spice to the second leg, the duo was
joined by the title-leading Frenchman's 999F04 for all but the
conclusion of the contest.
But, while the tire controversy seems to have subsided somewhat, most
important for the series' future is the wide-open opportunities now
available for competent four-cylinder entries as illustrated by Ten
Kate. If heeded by all (or even some), the sorry state of the series
in 2004 could become a memory as quickly as next season.
In fact, it seems as if the seeds are being planted and the future of
World Superbike is taking shape; not as a return to its humble
privateer-based (although nicely mixed) roots, nor as a mirror-image
of the glory years of the late-1990s and early-2000s when the
Superbike paddock rivalled (or bettered) the Grand Prix ranks in terms
of factory support, star power, and budgets.
Rather, it could be headed for—and best-served by-something in-between
the two extremes. A series featuring a deep field of closely matched
Japanese satellite efforts, factory and customer Italian teams, and
well-run private entries that actually have a prayer of making a mark.
Basically, the form in which World Supersport currently exists, only
played out on a bigger stage, with faster "flagship" machinery and
more recognizable names.
Such a formula could potentially bring SBK back to global prominence,
provide fans with spectacular racing, and offer the manufacturers
tremendous bang for their promotional buck while giving them all a
realistic hope of winning (two things MotoGP will almost certainly
never do).
Consider the impact of Ten Kate's front-running 2004 season on several
relevant parties:
Honda: Furious over FGSport's dumping of the ill-conceived air
restrictor rules and the spec tire shock, Honda is thought to have
spearheaded the MSMA World Superbike boycott. Instead, they shipped
their works CBRs to the States and England, while pumping massive
amounts of capital into a six-rider defense of their MotoGP dominance
against the Valentino Rossi/Yamaha assault.
While Honda currently holds a slim lead over Rossi in the Grand Prix
wars, their reputation and position are being seriously threatened.
Meanwhile, despite publicly ignoring World Superbike and spending
virtually nothing on the effort (Honda Europe is supporting the Ten
Kate Superbike team to some degree), Vermeulen's heroics have created
a noticeable buzz for Honda's extremely important new CBR1000RR.
In fact, during the same weekend as the Le Mans MotoGP race, HRC
sporting manager Carlo Fiorani was roaming the Monza paddock and
speaking to the Italian press. Numerous reports stated that Fiorani
admitted that, despite early reservations, he had warmed up to the new
technical and spec tire regulations while confirming that Honda Europe
was already working to strengthen their World Superbike presence in
2005.
Whether this means HRC support for Ten Kate, the addition of a second
rider to the effort, an additional satellite team or teams (H.E.M.
manages Honda's WSS activities and currently field two official
squads--Ten Kate and Klaffi--and has supported as many as four two-man
World Supersport teams in the recent past), or all of the above
remains to be seen.
With additional help to go along with a year of Superbike experience
under Ten Kate's and Vermeulen's belt, it seems almost certain that
Honda will be a powerful contender in the class next season for a
fraction of what they spend in MotoGP. And, by backing satellite
efforts rather than a full-works HRC team, Honda can still save face
in regards to the whole MSMA flap.
Yamaha, Kawasaki, Suzuki, and Aprilia: So if Honda really was the
driving force behind the MSMA Superbike boycott, how is it that the
firm that has taken nine of the past ten 500GP/MotoGP titles
(manufacturer and rider) convinced their rivals to stay clear of World
Superbike in 2004, and yet, they somehow still have a race-winning,
title-contending presence there?
Even worse--for the first time in more than a decade none would have
been considered huge underdogs as early as pre-season testing just for
running in-line fours. Yamaha, Suzuki, and Kawasaki, who were not as
willing as Honda to sacrifice their engine configuration of choice in
search of Superbike glory, all appear to have the goods to perform
under the new rules.
Even with factory-backed Ducati and Honda efforts competing in
American and England, Suzuki GSX-R1000s currently lead both
championships. Meanwhile, on the global scene Suzuki was forced to
issue a press release entitled "Suzuki making good progress" following
the most recent Grand Prix in which both GSV-Rs returned to the pits
and scored zero points.
Kawasaki's new ZX-10R is both the most powerful and lightest literbike
currently on the market. Modestly tuned versions have already won in
British Superbike against those extremely tough Suzukis, Hondas, and
Ducatis, landed on the podium in Japan, taken a top five in AMA
Superbike, and scored eleven top tens this year in World Superbike.
It's hard to imagine even a satellite team running ZX-10Rs being
anything but potent. And, like Suzuki, Kawasaki is forced to accept
moral victories in MotoGP, with a seventh-place standing as the best
result yet for their ZX-RR machine, which debuted during the 2002
season.
Yamaha, on the other hand, has much to celebrate in the premier class
this season. The huge investment required to secure the services of
Rossi and transform the M1 into a contender has already borne fruit.
The tuning-fork firm has claimed three victories in five races this
year after going totally winless last season.
It wouldn't take that much to have all the more to celebrate. The new
YZF-R1 may have the most Superbike potential of all the new 1000s, but
at the moment, all it's doing is utterly dominating Superstock racing
worldwide.
Meanwhile, Honda's actions must be weakening the MSMA stance while
providing a blueprint for their rivals on how to operate in the new
World Superbike order.
And perhaps Aprilia is the most meant for World Superbike status. With
the Italian firm recently near bankruptcy and their sales closely tied
to their racing activities, they must ponder how many RSV1000 twins
are actually moved off showroom floors based on the strength of the
largely unrelated "Cube" triples that struggle to score points and
only regularly outpace the Proton and WCM MotoGP efforts.
Troy Corser recently told Soup that the Mille was the finest Superbike
he's ever ridden, and in his estimation, a bike strong enough to have
been champ by now if Aprilia had stuck around. Tires were all that
were holding them back. He said, and that would no longer be an issue.
Perhaps Aprilia is beginning to know their role. In another sign that
the MSMA boycott is not nearly as strong as first thought, Aprilia
boss (and MSMA president) Ivano Beggio admitted that if their MotoGP
results aren't satisfactory this year, Aprilia may head back to SBK in
2005 (a rare bit of positive news for FGSport early this season, which
is proudly posted on the official World Superbike website in the form
of a PDF made from a Gazzetta dello Sport article).
World Supersport Teams: While Honda's handling of Ten Kate may be
showing the way forward for their Japanese rivals, Ten Kate's
performance has to have the major World Supersport players considering
a similar class graduation.
With the reined-in four-cylinder Superbike rules no longer light years
away from those found in World Supersport, there is the opportunity
for a great deal more cachet for relatively little more cash.
And if WSS-like satellite teams are the way of the future (at least
for the Japanese), the pre-existing World Supersport teams—with their
manufacturer ties and infrastructures already well-established--are
the obvious choices to fill these roles.
In fact, it's been widely rumored (to the point that perhaps it's not
even a rumor anymore) that Yamaha Italia (Belgarda), who currently arm
Jurgen Van Den Goorbergh and Fabian Foret with race-winning R6s in
WSS, are desperate to compete with long-time rival Ten Kate in World
Superbike next season. All that's needed is approval from above.
In the meantime, the team is gaining valuable R1 experience through
their own satellite effort (Italia Lorenzini by Leoni), which is
running roughshod over the European Superstock championship this year
while also finding the time to develop Superbike-spec YZFs in the CIV
(Italian) series.
It's a similar story for Alstare, who were disappointed to have to
abandon the Superbike class just when their Suzuki GSX-R1000s would
have finally been title-worthy. A proven Superbike squad, they'd have
no trouble leaping right back into the class should Suzuki allow them.
Ducati: Ducati, the firm whose position would be most threatened by a
revitalization of the series, is likely among the most anxious to see
it come to pass. World Superbike played a vital role in the Bologna
brand's resurgence during the 1980s and '90s, but the marketing value
of having competed against themselves for the past two years,
surrounded by claims of Italian-brewed favoritism and slanted rules,
must be limited.
Ducati has never been afraid of a fight. Nothing would be sweeter than
taking on a full field of 1000cc fours and still coming out on top.
The warning shot fired by Ten Kate at Silverstone has provided Corse
with a renewed purpose in a World Superbike arena that had been
growing stale.
Private Teams: Even without an influx of satellite teams in 2005, the
series' "Ducati Cup" status would still be in jeopardy (at least in
terms of grid mix). The customer teams have reportedly grown
frustrated with the 999RS's reliability woes--various problems
(primarily blown engines) that have resulted in numerous wins and
podiums lost by non-factory efforts this season.
Add to that the fact that the RS, while basically competitive at a
factory-level, is extremely expensive. Building a competitive
four-cylinder might require a considerably less substantial sum, and
for those less inclined to do the development work on their own,
competitive, ready-built multi-cylinder bikes should be available in
the form of customer Ten Kate Hondas.
Dorna: There has been speculation that Dorna's recent involvement in
the British Superbike championship came about with an eye towards
transforming that domestic championship into an international World
Superbike killer.
With World Superbike currently limping—but now showing some signs of a
turnaround—Dorna might be forced to accelerate any plans of doing so
or lose the window of opportunity to crush their long-time rival, if
that's what they have in mind.
World Superbike has many key pieces in place that a Dorna-run
Superbike series would lack from the start—global recognition,
history, television deals, infrastructure, track contracts, and so on.
Should Flammini also start to get some Japanese factory involvement
back in World Superbike (even if limited), any challenging
championship would be hard-pressed to compete.
And, even with the current icy relationship between the MSMA and
FGSport, would the factories really be interested in allowing Dorna to
monopolize the international roadracing scene?
Disclaimer: The point of this piece is to point out that, as dire as
the situation currently appears in World Superbike, it could turn
around just as quickly. In fact, several key factors appear to be
heading in the right direction.
However, rumors, hints, logical assumptions, and even public pledges
are still a long way from reality. There's no guarantee at this point
that sweeping changes are in order.
If not, another year like 2004 could be disastrous for the series. In
some ways '04 has been intriguing, if only as a season to lay the
groundwork for future success or failure. But, if the Japanese
factories resist the temptation to rejoin the fray even after Ten Kate
Honda has proven that there is a wealth of opportunity for them in the
new shape the series has taken, its long-term survival becomes much
more questionable.
This year is recognized by most as a transitional year, and the
spectacular 2002 season is still recent enough in most fans' memory to
allow FGSport a little leeway. However, if 2005 turns out to be a
repeat of 2004, it may be considered the new norm, and that's unlikely
to be good enough to keep many transfixed to their televisions and
forking over hard-earned cash for weekend tickets.
Perhaps it's already too late. World Superbike is little more than a
joke and a punching bag to some at this point. Those who are so
convinced of its demise that they'll ignore even the positive steps
and minor victories while trumpeting its shortcomings. And, while
Vermeulen's groundbreaking victory created something of a stir among
the press and fans, it might not have been as great as FGSport would
have hoped.
And, even if World Superbike starts to attract the attention of
manufacturers outside of Ducati and Petronas (and seemingly Honda),
there are still other issues that need to be addressed (holding onto
their stars, getting a high-profile American involved again,
maintaining and improving television contracts, etc).
Coming from a long-time fan and follower of the series, there may be
some bias in this piece; I readily admit that I would very much like
to see a return to respectability and feel there is plenty of room for
it to shine even under the shadow of the modern MotoGP juggernaut.
2005 may be the pivotal year and there are encouraging signs for the
first time since 2002. The next several months may prove the most
important in the history of the World Superbike Championship.
It's time to sink or swim.
ENDS
--
-Michael
No. 74 riding shotgun...
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