Var det prisen for ikke at lukke Tyrkiet ind i EU varmen?
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Amid the looming Turkish failure to preserve the secular nature
of its democracy, the growing Russian regional energy dominance
and recent agreements to extend a natural gas pipeline from Iran to India,
it seems like global diplomacy is becoming more dictated by increased
demand for cheap and efficient energy.
Energy setting the pace is bad news for Israel. These recent regional
trends allude to the rise of Energystan.
This highly coordinated network of non-democratic,
energy-generating states, highly susceptible to Islamic interests,
might end up stretching from Turkey to Afghanistan, through Russia,
the Caucuses and Iran.
Its economic clout combined with its strategic geographical spread
and military might will change regional as well as global affairs at the
expense of long-term Israeli interests.
The keystone of Energystan is the awakening bear of Moscow and
its gargantuan nationalized energy giant Gasprom. The Russian quest
of coalescing this network into a coordinated economic and political bloc
is evident in three major efforts.
Putin's Kremlin is engaged in an ongoing policy of recentralizing the Russian regime.
However, in a very clever way, the Russian leadership has managed to reinstate
several Soviet abusive constructs through "legitimate" business and legal tactics.
Among others, Russia has recently reinstated media censorship, ordering that from now on,
any media outlet in the country is obligated to report 50% good news about the regime.
Moreover, through a set of bogus IRS and legal accusations, the Kremlin effectively
nationalized the country's energy industry and has since used it as a pillar of Russia's
ever aggressive foreign policy.
In a recent New York Times article discussing Putin's legacy, this elusive
tactic was dubbed "Kremlin Inc." International energy companies, the most
recent being British Petroleum, have suffered the wrath of Kremlin Inc. as their
franchises suddenly ceased to exist for obscure bureaucratic reasons.
As the EU fails to establish a coherent energy policy to confront Russia's
dominance (50% of the EU Gas consumption is Russian), Russian "Energy Diplomacy"
is ever more productive.
In recent years we have seen Russia threaten and carry out sudden and
abrupt supply halts as part of its economic haggling process with desperate
Western countries.
Moreover, Russia is engaged in serious talks on the establishment of the
Natural Gas OPEC that will enable it to establish a cartel on the world's next
dominant energy resource. These talks are conducted predominantly with Iran
and Algeria, which together account for over 40% of global gas reserves.
Additionally, on May 31, Russia signed a ground-breaking agreement
with countries surrounding the Caspian Sea, establishing a gas pipeline
around the sea. This agreement, which was awarded a footnote in the
Western media, might become the watershed event leading to the establishment
of Energystan - as it solidifies Russia's control over the means of transporting gas.
International Umbrella:
Russia takes care of its Energystan partners
Russia has demonstrated to its potential Energystan allies that it is
willing to use its scientific, military and political power to support their policies.
Recent reflections of this policy are the Russian support for Iran and the recent
$7.5 billion arms deal with Algeria. Hizbullah's use of Russia's Kornett and Matisse
anti-tank missiles are also part of this trend.
The latest Russian developments must be read in the context of the Western failure
to focus on essential democracy, rather than procedural one.
Insisting on procedural, text-book democracy that focuses on free
elections and other procedures has brought about Hamas in the PA,
crushed the Lebanese structure by allowing Hizbullah's "political wing"
to transform into a legitimate democratic power and is on its way to see
the collapse of the moderate Turkish regime.
While Lebanon and the PA might be lost causes at the moment,
Turkey is still open for change. As the West has failed to accommodate
the country's traditional "three demands" - Kurds, Cyprus, EU accession
- Turkey's moderates and the country seem to be spiraling out of democracy
into a clear process of turning east.
While the only chance of relative democracy and moderation seems to be the
Turkish army, the international community refuses to view a military coup as
advantageous and more democratic than an Islamist regime, set to intensify
the process of turning east to establish Energystan rather than towards the EU.
Metaphorically speaking, while all this is in progress, a group of radicals headed
by Supreme leader Ali Khaminai are sitting smug in Teheran.
The West's focus on the old paradigm of procedural democracy enables
them to operate their terror-network and Shi'a crescent with no serious hurdles.
The international community is better off switching its insistence on procedural
democracy with one that focuses on less perfect, bounded democracy.
Bounded democracy will provide the international community with tools to
engage the great tradition of Russia and Turkey with effective diplomatic means,
rather than an "all or nothing" approach that seems to be exacerbating the tension.
A sobered approach, aiming at containment rather than "victory" might succeed
in preventing Energystan from coming into being.
Jonathan Adiri is an analyst at the Reut Institute.
Jan Rasmussen